The future of Spanish in the United States

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mentecuerpo
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The future of Spanish in the United States

Postby mentecuerpo » Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:51 pm

The future of Spanish in the United States
According to projections made by the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of Hispanics in the country will exceed 111 million by 2060. That will mean that 27.5% of the population, almost one in three Americans, will be of Hispanic origin.

Furthermore, the high level of use of Spanish by U.S. Hispanics, whether native or bilingual, together with the slow rate of loss of this language shown by this community over the last forty years (around ten percentage points), indicate that the number of Spanish speakers in the United States will surpass that of Spain in the next decade and that of Colombia in the following decade, which will place the United States as the second Spanish-speaking country in the world, behind only Mexico.

The increase in the Hispanic community will not be solely due to its vegetative growth, but will be closely linked to the influx of immigrants from Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, something that will depend largely on the decisions taken by the U.S. Administration. Thus, the number of Spanish speakers will also vary depending on the adoption of political measures that favor or impede the entry of immigrants into the country.

In this regard, the U.S. Census itself has made alternative demographic projections that consider three different scenarios: high, low or no immigration. In all of them, the Hispanic population would grow between now and 2060 in both absolute and relative terms. The intensity of this growth varies, however. In a low-immigration scenario, the U.S. Hispanic population would reach 100 million, equivalent to 27% of the total U.S. population, while in a high-immigration scenario it would reach 128 million (29%). On the other hand, in a scenario of zero immigration, the Hispanic community would barely add 16 million people over the next four decades, reaching 78 million, and its relative weight would increase by just over five percentage points: from 18.7% today to 24% in 2060. Figure 30.


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)


El futuro del español en Estados Unidos
Según las proyecciones realizadas por la Oficina del Censo de los Estados Unidos, el número de hispanos del país superará los 111 millones en 2060. Eso supondrá que el 27,5 % de la población, casi uno de cada tres estadounidenses, será de origen hispano.

Asimismo, el alto grado de empleo del español por parte de los hispanos estadounidenses, ya sean nativos o bilingües, unido al ritmo lento de pérdida de esta lengua que muestra dicha comunidad en los últimos cuarenta años (alrededor de diez puntos porcentuales), indican que el número de hablantes de español de los Estados Unidos superará al de España en la próxima década y al de Colombia en la siguiente, lo que situará a Estados Unidos como el segundo país hispanohablante del mundo, solo por detrás de México.

El aumento de la comunidad hispana no se producirá únicamente por su crecimiento vegetativo, sino que este estará estrechamente ligado a la afluencia de inmigrantes procedentes de México, Centroamérica y el Caribe, algo que dependerá en gran parte de las decisiones que se tomen desde la Administración estadounidense. Así, el número de hablantes de español también variará en función de la adopción de medidas políticas que favorezcan o impidan la entrada de inmigrantes en el país.

En este sentido, el propio Censo de los Estados Unidos ha realizado proyecciones demográficas alternativas que contemplan tres escenarios diferentes: alta inmigración, baja o nula. En todos ellos, la población hispana crecería de aquí a 2060 tanto en términos absolutos como relativos. Varía, sin embargo, la intensidad de ese crecimiento. En un contexto de baja inmigración, la población hispana estadounidense ascendería a los 100 millones de personas, lo que equivaldría al 27 % de la población total del país, mientras que, en un contexto de alta inmigración, esta cifra llegaría a los 128 millones (29 %). Por otra parte, en un escenario de inmigración nula, la comunidad hispana apenas sumaría 16 millones de personas en las próximas cuatro décadas, hasta llegar a los 78 millones, y su peso relativo aumentaría poco más de cinco puntos porcentuales: del 18,7 % actual al 24 % en 2060. Gráfico 30.

Fuente:
https://cvc.cervantes.es/lengua/anuario ... ic/p04.htm
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Lawyer&Mom
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Re: The future of Spanish in the United States

Postby Lawyer&Mom » Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:07 pm

A counter perspective:

https://theconversation.com/spanish-use ... tion-85357

The Three-Generation Pattern has a long history in the United States. I have siblings who are currently experiencing it with Spanish, I’m a believer.
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Re: The future of Spanish in the United States

Postby mentecuerpo » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:16 am

Lawyer&Mom wrote:A counter perspective:

https://theconversation.com/spanish-use ... tion-85357

The Three-Generation Pattern has a long history in the United States. I have siblings who are currently experiencing it with Spanish, I’m a believer.

Immigration patterns and the language that comes with it change over time for sure.
For example, the Chinese speaker population is increasing in Canada and U.S.A. in modern times.

The German language was popular in the 1800s.
https://bostonlanguage.wordpress.com/20 ... n-the-u-s/

In 1965, U.S. lawmakers changed immigration laws and opened the U.S.A. to the rest of the world.

"President Johnson signed the Hart–Celler Act into law on October 3, 1965. In opening entry to the U.S. to immigrants other than Northwestern European and Germanic groups, the Act significantly altered immigration demographics in the U.S.[1]"

For now, this is how languages are distributed in the U.S.A. There are 44 languages listed in the article, but I copy the top 20 languages.

English only – 239 million
Spanish – 41 million
Chinese (including Mandarin, Cantonese and Hokkien) – 3.5 million
Tagalog (including Filipino) – 1.7 million
Vietnamese – 1.5 million
Arabic – 1.2 million
French – 1.2 million
Korean – 1.1 million
Russian – 0.94 million
German – 0.92 million
Haitian Creole – 0.87 million
Hindi – 0.86 million
Portuguese – 0.79 million
Italian – 0.58 million
Polish – 0.52 million
Yiddish – 0.51 million
Japanese – 0.46 million
Persian (including Farsi, Dari and Tajik) – 0.42 million
Gujarati – 0.41 million
Telugu – 0.37 million

Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Languages ... ted_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigrati ... ct_of_1965
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