I'm scrapping flashcards and going all input. I'm going to do an end of life update on the 9,000 sentences from Tatoeba so that others might benefit from it, but I don't enjoy doing it and I'd much rather just learn from listening/watching/reading.
I read an article yesterday by Dr. J. Marvin Brown which proposes a formula for fluency of languages with an input based approach (specifically listening, but I like reading too). The formula proposed was:
y = C * (1 - e^(-kx/L)
Where y is how "fluent" you are with 1 being a native speaker and 0 being knowing nothing, C I didn't really understand what it's supposed to be but is apparently how well a learner goes about doing it, e is the natural number, k is the "acquisition constant" which apparently is 0.0018, x is the hours of input understood, and L is the ease of a language (as in closeness to a known language considering cognates/culture). We could break x down into hours of input consumed (h) and percentage understood (u), so x=hu.
If we assume, as the author of the article did, that sentences should come naturally at y=0.83, C=0.95, k=0.0018, amount of content understood should be 80%, and the L for English-Spanish is 0.4 (this hasn't been studied with English-Spanish so it's dubious), then the curve looks like this:
Hours-fluency for Spanish.PNG
With the number of hours at 0.83 "fluency" being 574, or 720 to 0.88 fluency which seemed to be significant in the mind of the author as being the level at which one can have an easy (as in you don't have to try), uninterrupted conversation about any everyday matter. This is interesting because I'd never seen an equation given to this input method before, just people throwing numbers out there.
What does this mean for me? Well I probably have 100 - 200 hours of Spanish input so I'm nowhere near... Although I don't know to what extent all other learning (eg 200 hours of Anki) counts, I guess the author would argue that it doesn't. Anyway, no matter what this says about being able to talk, it does mean that I know I have somewhere to aim in terms of understanding which is really what my goal is. Also, I'm going to Spain in a year and at 2 hours a day I should be "fluent" by that time. We'll see! No doubt I'd need to train my mouth muscles at some point.
Here's the article (direct MS Word download).
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