The future of French

[dml130]

What do you all think about the future of French? I've seen such varying projections, everything from "it's a dying language" to its potentially being one of the top two or three most spoken languages in the world in 40 or 50 years.

I guess a lot of this depends on what course it takes on the continent of Africa. If it follows a similar path to that of Portuguese in Angola or Mozambique (a large percentage now speak Portuguese as their first language in those countries, as I understand it), then maybe those optimistic projections are realistic. On the other hand, if in the future the governments of these French speaking African countries lean towards promoting other languages such as English, Swahili, or other indigenous languages instead, I imagine that would impede the growth of the French language. Any other thoughts?

[lichtrausch]

Any other thoughts?

Once the singularity hits in 5 to 20 years, all valuable resources will be available in all languages, which should weaken the position of French and other colonial languages vis-a-vis indigenous languages. I'm not sure what it will mean for the competition between English and French as a second/third language though.

[PeterMollenburg]

I read something just the other day about the Canadian government taking steps to help secure French's future in Canada as there are concerns with low immigration and an ageing population in Québec that French will eventually disappear or at least become significantly less significant in numbers and thus in value in Canada as a whole.

I've read that French is disappearing in Vanuatu and is uncertain in the Seychelles.

I've read that it's future is seemingly very good (if we analyse the patterns according to numbers of speakers) in New Caledonia and French Polynesia and that the French speaking portion of Switzerland has been and continues to increase it's percentage/share of native speakers with regards to the overall population, albeit very slowly.

In some African countries it's potentially under threat in the future while in others it will be booming. Population growth predictions will not reach what they project for Africa (and other parts of the world). My opinion and I will not say why. English is making in-roads everywhere and continues to undermine the importance of all other languages in Europe and beyond to varying degrees. Chinese (economic) influence is still growing which may have an effect language policies. The world is changing.

It's too hard to predict, even with the most sophisticated analysis and modeling tools as we don't know what is around the corner and I tend to think it won't be anything like what has been predicted in the press or perhaps even what most might think over a beer or coffee. The French/Francophonie are selling a positive picture for the language, yet there are some reasons to see things negatively as well. In truth it may be somewhere in the middle. My conclusion would be that it will roughly keep it's current position in the language ranks relative to the other languages in the top 20 or whatever, since it might disappear from some countries and conversely become embedded as the absolute lingua franca in others, where practically the whole population speak it well.

[DaveAgain]

I guess a lot of this depends on what course it takes on the continent of Africa. If it follows a similar path to that of Portuguese in Angola or Mozambique (a large percentage now speak Portuguese as their first language in those countries, as I understand it), then maybe those optimistic projections are realistic. On the other hand, if in the future the governments of these French speaking African countries lean towards promoting other languages such as English, Swahili, or other indigenous languages instead, I imagine that would impede the growth of the French language. Any other thoughts?

As a lingua franca I think French is destined to be replaced by English everywhere, so I don't think the Francophone-Africa projections will happen.

[luke]

I guess a lot of this depends on what course it takes on the continent of Africa.

That's insightful, although French will have staying power regardless of what happens linguistically in Africa.

But sticking with Africa. Has a cottage industry of YouTubers speaking French in Africa popped up? Is it pretty strong? Has it been going on long? Answers to these questions may provide some clues about the future of French in Africa.

[Dragon27]

Any other thoughts?

Once the singularity hits in 5 to 20 years

In the meantime, other people prophecy the inevitable and imminent collapse of our global civilization in roughly the same time frame. So.. which prediction will win the race?

[Leurre]

The French especially like to kid themselves about la francophonie, imo from an international influence standpoint it's a slowly sinking ship. African countries that stay with French as a language are also either kidding themselves or not easily able to shift over to something more useful.
Get out while you still can

[Ogrim]

Seen here from France the future of French looks quite healthy!

I have the impression that most French people don't really care or think much about La Francophonie (certainly less than the British do about the Commonwealth). Any debate about the future of French in this country is usually about the influence of "anglicismes", or, in certain parts of France, about the role of regional and minority languages in education. There are also the general (usual) complaints in French media about the decline in writing skills among children and youth.

That said it is anybody's guess how the world will look in 20-30 years, and I do not have a crystal ball which tells me whether French will be an important international language or not in the future.

[DaveAgain]

Any debate about the future of French in this country is usually about the influence of "anglicismes", or, in certain parts of France, about the role of regional and minority languages in education.

I'd love to read a book that traces back international expressions to their origin.

Earlier today I was listening to a radio programme about Eric Tabarly who we were told had "battre les Anglais à leur propre jeu" did this come to England from France? Old British films often have men referring to one another as "old man", that happens today in France, who did it first?

[Le Baron]

The promotion and money ploughed into global French by the French government alone has a huge effect. Its popularity has only been effected by global English as a main media/business language, but English is not the only competitor in those domains.

It is without doubt still among the top 5 languages taken on by 2nd language learners. The numbers of places where it is taught around the world indicates it is still popular and it is a mainstay in school curricula. Its cultural products industry (literature, film, theatre...news output) is enormous

France promotes French in Africa for geo-economic/neo-colonial reasons I'm forbidden to talk about here. This has made them plough a lot of money and manpower into French Africa. They are already co-operating with the Chinese government to ensure they remain an influence in Africa.

In general I don't understand the concerns about it disappearing because France alone is a very large country, whose population is not clamouring to learn English or German or any other language above French. So even if all the French satellites dwindled you still have +/- 70 million people speaking French. That's not endangered and is still enormous in comparison to e.g. here in the Netherlands where Dutch still hasn't disappeared as the language currency despite heavy English penetration.

I do follow the Canadian media and even there I'm sceptical about it being at risk. There's a difference too between the 'official' French and the Quebecois which is actually spoken there by most people. I don't know how much Quebecois is at risk. There are some French Canadians here on the forum who can perhaps answer these questions.