Postby Cavesa » Wed Aug 02, 2023 10:29 am
I have no doubts more standards of French are likely to arise (similarily to more versions of English or Spanish), but I sincerely not just hope, but truly believe that the african countries will not throw it away.
For the practical reasons already described (a neutral language between various original ones. You know, if people from two tribes can agree on using disliked French, it is still better than a fight over which one gets to linguistically oppress the other one). But it would be dumb to cut themselves from an already strong base that gives access to a huge market and academic opportunities.
Even in spite of the reality of being taught to dream of living in France while not being much welcome anymore, it stays a language of power, and a base they can build on. Just like Canada and Australia are their own countries and worlds, while still using English and profiting from the advantages. Getting rid of French now, after having already paid a huge price, would be unwise.
Even if each of these countries had a single alternative ready, it would be really sad to watch them make the same huuuge mistake my country did. The second half of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th included so much wasted time, money, and intellectual work on getting rid of German. So much creative and intellectual work wasted, so many social problems. And the reward now, 150 years later? We have an internationally worthless official language, and a huge language barrier to access larger markets or the wider academic world (because the small Czech pool is rotting due to lack of normal competition), and the language is one of the major obstacles in catching up with the richer countries of the EU. Central Europe has a lot ot teach, including many "nope, this is not the way" moments. But unfortunately, nobody is interested, nobody has our history in their classes.
So even if we assumed Mali or Niger or other countries could agree on one replacement for French (not just legally, but also in the economy and academia), I think they'd just waste tons of resources now, to gain worse opportunities later. In the next twenty years they'd waste money and time on replacing French, instead of trying to shine on the larger market. And they could forget about ever becoming a country keeping people in (especially the more competent, more educated, more intelligent, more hardworking people) and actually attracting skilled immigration.
What are the real alternatives:
1.fight between the existing linguistic and social and ethnic groups. fragmentation of the country, social problems, and so on.
2.replacement by another seemingly "neutral" language. In some cases English (which totally removes any colonialism based argument against French), or Arabic (which means joining a much more problematic shared cultural space, that doesn't really lead to more freedom, equality, or better growth of the society), or others (Niger coup is clearly pro-Putin, but I highly doubt it would make the people learn Russian)
I highly doubt they'll get rid of French. It may become more equal to bigger original languages of the countries or regions. It may get several more standard versions. But it will not disappear for at least a few generations.
What worries me a bit more is the situation in Europe, where French is ceding academic space to English, and where francophone countries seem to have a hard time forcing immigrants to learn French, which creates huge local problems. But that's still very much different from the language dying out.
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