How is coronavirus affecting your studies?

[CarlyD]

I'd posted here previously that it seemed to be overblown.

It's still overblown, but has taken on a somewhat scary tone.

We've had 2 deaths here--both were over 75 and with enough other health issues that a common cold could have done it. But in response to that--all schools are closed indefinitely, almost all businesses have been told to close, all events have been cancelled, panic buying has caused shortages at the grocery stores. Our main topic of conversation now seems to be where you can buy toilet paper.

Our governor just announced that I, due to my age, must now stay in my house indefinitely. I probably didn't even want to leave before that--now I'm desperate to go somewhere, anywhere.

I'm trying to just let it all slide and work on my stuff--genealogy, crafts and language. But between being bombarded on all sides by all this "we're all going to die" and the financial hit I'll be taking--it's hard to concentrate. Or walk away from it.

I was hoping it would be over soon, but just yesterday heard--"until July or August." With businesses closed, our economy will be totally tanked by then--another worry.

Sigh. Back to German.

[gsbod]

It's definitely having an impact, but too early to say whether it will be positive or negative overall.

Travel abroad (or even outside my city) is pretty much out of the question. Face to face language practice locally is also not possible for the time being, whether through informal groups I've attended in pubs and cafes (now off limits), or through the formal French class I've been attending, which has now stopped all face to face teaching.

I'm also concerned about managing my mental health through this. My usual strategies for coping are unlikely to be available, and it's hard to stay grounded when the earth keeps shifting. However, the difference this time is that everybody is having to find a strategy to cope with such an unprecedented situation. Some people are calm, others are losing it already - and the ones who are losing it already are not always the ones I expected.

On the other hand, since social obligations and opportunities are now close to zero, travel is not an option, and I need something to distract myself from the troubles of our times, maybe now is the perfect opportunity to finish learning how to read Japanese...

[emk]

Warning: I'm fretting about depressing math today. If you've done that enough recently, skip this.

We are now up to 12 known cases here in the state of Vermont, including one in each of the two adjacent counties. The source of these cases is not known, which means there are almost certainly more out there. But Vermont has a total of 400 tests available and they're running out of supplies.

In New York (not that far away), they're at 1,500 people, up from 950 the day before. I guess they finally have automated testing online.

In urban areas, the number of cases typically goes up by a factor 10 every two weeks. So New York would have 15,000 confirmed cases in two weeks if they keep testing at current rates, plus a bunch of unknown cases. Two weeks after that, 150,000 confirmed cases. Two more weeks, 1.5 million. Plus the unknown cases. The governor of New York is estimating peak infections in 45 days, so there you go. After that, things would slow down. So this is why everyone's going into lockdown, to buy a few more weeks.

Roughly 20% of these people will require some medical attention (maybe just fluids and monitoring), and a few percent will require ICU beds or ventilators. With good medical care, chances are good for younger people. But NYC has only 50,000 hospital beds and 3,000 ICU beds, many already occupied.

A few Vermont resorts are advertising themselves to fleeing NYC residents. This seems like the kind of thing that should be managed very carefully. Like, please pay online, go directly to your cabin, and stay there.

The math is grim and it's distracting me from life in general. Work is getting done at home, but language studies are off the table today. We'll see about another day.

Since we're in the countryside, I can get in a nice walk tomorrow while maintaining social distance. It's supposed to be moderately warm and sunny.

[slowmoon]

In urban areas, the number of cases typically goes up by a factor 10 every two weeks. So New York would have 15,000 confirmed cases in two weeks if they keep testing at current rates, plus a bunch of unknown cases. Two weeks after that, 150,000 confirmed cases. Two more weeks, 1.5 million.

Don't worry. The spread will level off. As you said, there will be a spike in confirmed cases as we start mass testing. But that will also expose just how mild this thing is. We will get it under control. Some of us may have already gotten it and recovered without even knowing it.

[gsbod]

Warning: I'm fretting about depressing math today. If you've done that enough recently, skip this.

This genuinely made me laugh out loud, since I also went through the depressing maths phase some time last week. In my case I took the data from WHO's situation reports to compare the growth rate of confirmed cases between here in the UK and Italy, which allowed me to make some predictions about when we were likely to end up with significant social distancing interventions. I was almost spot on with my predictions, which goes to show two things: 1)it's not always good to be right, and 2)not all problems can be solved with a good spreadsheet.

On the plus side, interventions in China and South Korea seem to have slowed down the growth rate significantly, suggesting that it's entirely possible to avoid the potentially devastating impacts of the rate of new cases exceeding capacity within our health services.

It's going to be weird couple of months, but no need to panic (yet).

[emk]

Don't worry. The spread will level off.

Yes, it's obviously something more like a sigmoid curve, which means it will level off before it infects everyone. Current estimates are that it would infect something like 20-60% of the population before recovered people become numerous enough to block further spread.

As you said, there will be a spike in confirmed cases as we start mass testing. But that will also expose just how mild this thing is. We will get it under control. Some of us may have already gotten it and recovered without even knowing it.

Yup, I think everyone is hoping that this somehow turns out milder than it looks. For example, some patients only test positive for the virus for a brief window (even with mild-to-moderate symptoms), and then show antibodies but no viral DNA. If this is the case, then there might still be a good number of brief, asymptomatic cases out there that we can't detect until somebody starts surveying for antibodies. Here's hoping.

But what we do know is that this virus has pushed multiple medical systems to the point of near-collapse, and hospitals are being forced to triage life-saving interventions.

These are the kind of numbers that keep me up and distract me. I'm hoping for good news soon, somewhere.

[Kevin22]

I have been in my apartment for weeks in 黄石 (Huángshí), Hubei. I refuse to keep count of the days. It’s not helpful for this situation. What is helpful, I have found, is to create a very detailed routine. Fill each day with a to-do list, mini rituals, and hobbies. I hope you can get some ideas from how I have decided to craft my days in a situation that feels out of control. Take control of your time, your health, and your mindset. Let this guide be an outline. If you are one of the lucky ones able to walk freely, I envy you. But you could learn something from how I spend a typical day focused on the now, living with intent and purpose.

Since we are at the mercy of how the various news outlets decide to cover the outbreak to any degree that will get the most attention, it’s usually in the most theatrical light possible. This will take a toll on your mood, motivation, and perceived level of safety. It’s not as bad as they say in some aspects while on the other hand, it’s wreaking havoc on the human condition. What I mean by this is that it’s not so bad for a healthy individual to catch the virus. It’s equivalent to the common flu in many cases. The real detriment is what quarantine, misinformation, and panic can do to a person on a mental and emotional level.

This is why my routine includes avoiding too much media exposure. I start my day by waking up naturally. I let the sunlight tell me when it’s time to rise. I’ve reset my sleep patterns and now wake at 6:45. I immediately drink water and do some mobility work to signal my body to support my mind since shortly after I will tackle my “to-do” list that I made the night before.

The To-Do List

The list is of paramount importance. I divide it into 3 categories. The first being activities that I find pleasure in doing but must nonetheless be accomplished.

This can include
●Water the plants, deadhead the spent blooms, add fertilizer
●Write gratitudes and reflect on goals
●Practice handstand

The second category is a little more demanding. It requires more focus that comes with being fully awake and present. This category should include activities that will catapult you ever so closer toward a goal that you set for yourself.

For me this includes
●Study Chinese online with eChineseLearning
●Write 10 pages of a novel
●Send 5 messages to friends or family to keep in touch

The third category includes things that are not of great importance but need to be done to maintain order in my home.

This list generally includes things like
●Buy bulbs and change light sockets
●Restock refrigerator
●Dust and wipe down surfaces
●Pushups, jump squats, and Russian twists
●Reply to emails

In between doing my to-do list, I have my own little rituals that keep me grounded. For example, before doing my handstand practice I make coffee with a French press to rev me up. And since I take Chinese class online I like to listen to some Chinese music or read Chinese comics to shift gears in my brain.

I find that maintaining routine while seeing progress in everything I accomplish in my to-do list keeps me so busy and satisfied that I don’t have time to feel very many negative emotions.

That’s not to say that certain negative emotions are bad or at all uncommon. Feeling trapped, bored, or lonely are 100% normal. That’s where the physical activity and studies help so much. Make it a point to be physical in some way. It releases serotonin and boosts your mood so much more than drinking or binging in movies ever could. Also, prioritize learning something new. I am putting a focus on speaking Chinese conversationally as well as really understanding root characters and radicals. It challenges my mind and gives me more control over the thoughts that surface as well as how I react to them. I hope you all have access to the internet. If so, you can get an extra month of free classes right now with the same language company I use. eChineseLearning will give you a trial lesson online for free. Just mention my name. Or just join their WeChat group to learn interesting topics about Chinese by adding jenniferzhu6.


On the days that you need some socialization and entertainment download extensions or apps that allow movie watching online with friends. You could also do online gaming or simply use the screen share option in some messengers. If you play an instrument organize a jam night with friends online. If you have a hobby that you are good at, consider sharing it with the world. Do a makeup tutorial and hold a live stream on social media so you can communicate with people in real-time. There are so many ways to be social without having to be in the same room as someone. In the future, I definitely want to be surrounded by familiar faces and exchange much needed hugs, but until then these ideas do just fine.

Beyond these have a project you can work on that will give you something to look forward to. I am planning an epic bike ride. I am mapping out routes in a few countries and have a lot to look forward to. The fact that I plan to cycle through China really gives me motivation and direction in my studies. They tie into one another as do a couple of my other to-do list items. It’s the ultimate way to spend my day, in my opinion.

Give yourself a purpose. Include a mix of activities to work on each day that needs both immediate attention as well as offer future benefits. Schedule in physical activity as well as social events. You’ll be much more eager to start your day, you’ll feel good, and keep busy too. Overall, you will create a well-rounded version of yourself and when the day comes for you get to integrate back into the big wide world, you’ll be better for it.

Recently Italy and New Rochelle, New York has put its citizens on lockdown. I am thinking about you all and can empathize. To everyone affected by the coronavirus, I hope you get the most out of each and every day.

Stay strong, everybody.

Kevin Pierce is an English teacher and student in China who writes short fiction and loves sports.

[DaveAgain]

I'm hoping for good news soon, somewhere.

Warmer temperatures seem to slow the rate of growth.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

[Adrianslont]

I'm hoping for good news soon, somewhere.

Warmer temperatures seem to slow the rate of growth.

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

That is only good news in the northern hemisphere - though I won’t begrudge you your good news.

[Cainntear]

Don't worry. The spread will level off. As you said, there will be a spike in confirmed cases as we start mass testing. But that will also expose just how mild this thing is. We will get it under control. Some of us may have already gotten it and recovered without even knowing it.

And some of us know people personally who are currently infected with it. It's all well and good not panicking, but that's different from denial.

It doesn't sound like ロータス is enjoying it much, for a start. My sister's ex is stuck in bed feeling like his lungs are made of lead. Local mums in my area are concerned about their kids' symptoms, and kids aren't even particularly badly affected by this either. I'm concerned for my elderly parents as the disease creeps round us, school by school.

I've got a sister getting ready to stop her clinical practice as a psychiatrist because she will be needed in a hospital, and she's pretty distressed by the whole thing.

This is not something we can simply brush off.